D4.3 Exploratory scenarios for zero marine pollution in three EU regional seas
The case of PFAS in the Nort-East Atlantic and the Black Sea regions, and TWPs in the Mediterranean Sea region
The case of PFAS in the Nort-East Atlantic and the Black Sea regions, and TWPs in the Mediterranean Sea region
Citation
Van Hulst, F., Hendriksen, A., Booth, A., Gileva, E., Kopke, K., Ruhl, R., Shivarov, A., Strietman, WJ., Vlachogianni, T., Van Leeuwen, J., (2025). SOS-ZEROPOL2030 Deliverable D4.3: Exploratory scenarios for zero marine pollution in three EU regional seas.
Executive Summary
This report presents a set of exploratory zero pollution scenarios for three European Regional Seas. In line with the rest of the Horizon Europe project ‘Source to Seas: Zero Pollution 2030’ (SOS-ZEROPOL2030), the focus is on two pollutants of emerging concern: per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the North-East Atlantic and the Black Sea regions, and tyre wear particles (TWPs) in the Mediterranean Sea region.
The exploratory scenarios were developed within the wider context of the CO-ACT methodology, which is a structured co-creation approach for transformative action and sustainability transitions, based on the following steps: identifying Challenges, clarifying Objectives, exploring Alternatives, assessing Consequences, and recognizing Trade-Offs. To shape the ‘Alternatives’ from CO-ACT, we developed exploratory scenarios with a six- phase approach:
- Clarifying the issue at stake
- Identifying drivers of change
- Developing micro-scenarios
- Structuring micro-scenarios
- Writing scenario storylines
- Validating the scenarios
For each of the three regional seas, the resulting zero pollution scenarios were developed by combining two main drivers along the axes of a matrix: one axis shows who assumes responsibility for a zero pollution economy, and the other axis reflects the kind of ambition in pollution governance.
Through the development of the exploratory scenarios, it was possible to identify varying trajectories of systemic transformative change that is expected to lead to zero marine pollution. The scenarios are valuable tools for reflection and action-oriented guidance for all relevant stakeholders, including policy makers, in support of the EU Zero Pollution Action Plan under the European Green Deal.
